Rateform point rating approach
The Rateform technique has its origins in 'The Rating Of Chess Players' by Professor Elo. It also takes in 'The Punters Revenge' by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth.
Naturally you might select to utilize different values to those stated above. By experimenting you might even create much better values to utilize. You might likewise choose not to reset each teams 1000 points at the start of the season. You'll rather let them rollover into the next season. Another option would be to have a rolling estimation where you determine the rateform for each team on say the last 6 months.
The basis of the Rateform approach is that each of the 2 teams taking part in a match is offered a point rating. This is based on their present form.
Here are the fundamental guidelines
1. Each team is offered a point rating representing their present form.
2. At the start of the season each team is provided 1000 points.
3. When a match is played both teams contribute a few of their points towards a kitty.
4. The home team supplies more points into the kitty than the away team. This is done to show the home team benefits from home advantage.
5. The winning team takes the kitty, unless the outcome is a draw in which case both sides share the points. When it ends in a draw, the away side gains points and the home side loses points.
Here is how a common estimation is made:
Home team points total = HT POINTS.
Away team points total = AT POINTS.
Home team's contribution to kitty = HT KITTY = 7% of HT POINTS.
Away team's contribution to kitty = AT KITTY = 5% of AT POINTS.
The kitty for that reason => KITTY = HT KITTY + AT KITTY.
Then, if the outcome is a HOME WIN:
Home team gets KITTY points added to HT POINTS.
Away team gets zero points added to AT POINTS and loses its 5% contribution to the kitty.
Then, if outcome is an AWAY WIN:
Home team gets absolutely no points added to HT POINTS and loses its 7% contribution to the kitty.
Away team gets KITTY points added to AT POINTS.
Then, if the outcome is a DRAW:
Home team gets KITTY / 2 points added to HT POINTS.
Home team gets KITTY / 2 points added to HT POINTS.
Away team gets KITTY / 2 points added to AT POINTS.
Let's take a look at an easy example of how you might use this:
To determine the possible result of a match based upon rateform the away rateform is deducted from the home rateform. The difference is then compared against set values for home, away and draw possibilities.
We might make our set values as follows:
AWAY WIN -250 DRAW 150 HOME WIN.
RATEFORM DIFFERENCE = HOME TEAM RATEFORM - AWAY TEAM RATEFORM.
If the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is less than -250 then the match is most likely to be an away win. If the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is higher than 150 then the match is most likely to be a home win. If the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE lies in between them the result is most likely to be a draw.
Now its your turn
Naturally you might select to utilize different values to those stated above. By experimenting you might even create much better values to utilize. You might likewise choose not to reset each teams 1000 points at the start of the season. You'll rather let them rollover into the next season. Another option would be to have a rolling estimation where you determine the rateform for each team on say the last 6 months.
Good luck.